I'm a believer in 'Fat Tony Science.'

I imagine that Fat Tony is some sort of quasi-questionable figure, or maybe just a street-wise person, like so many of the people I could observe growing up in Brooklyn. Fat Tony Science attempts to inject a healthy dose of street smarts into the decision tree by looking beyond simple facts and assumptions to things like ulterior motives and inter-personal realpolitik. Fat Tony Science becomes especially handy when parsing patient histories.

Here's an example:

You flip a coin 99 times and every toss comes up heads. What are the odds of it coming up tails on the next toss?

Little old lady at the slots:
It will come up tails, it's bound to after so many heads.

The Scientist:
The same odds as always, 50-50.

Fat Tony:
It will come up heads, since only a rigged coin will produce 99 consecutive heads.